Reading between the lines of the latest Philly jobs report

By Randy LoBasso

– Yesterday, we were all delighted to read a Bureau of Labor Statistics report which showed that Philadelphia’s unemployment rate had dropped to its lowest point since December 2008, prompting City Hall to issue a press release patting itself on the back.

“Today’s news is yet more evidence that Philadelphia is recovering from the effects of the Great Recession, that companies are investing, confidence in our city is strong, and that Philadelphians are getting back to work,” said Mayor Nutter in the release.

More good news: The number of employed Philadelphians is at its highest point “for a February” since 2009. The number of unemployed Philadelphians is at its lowest point since December 2008. And, to top things off, “the drop in the unemployment rate can be attributed to employment gains and not a drop in the labor force, since both the number of employed and the actual labor force grew between January 2014 and February 2014.”

What they’re saying is true. Philadelphia’s unemployment rate is going down, and over the last two months, the labor force has gone up. This is nothing at which to shake a fist! But it’s far from the whole story. Philly’s labor force and number of employed people is up now, but has been on the downturn in general for a while now.

Unemployment numbers, in their most media-quoted form, exist as a rate. The rate of unemployment is the number of people employed compared to the number of people who consider themselves part of the labor market — as in, people actively looking for work, or working.

Part of the happiness surrounding this report is regarding the fact that both the number of employed people and the number of people in the labor market jumped from the previous month. That said, while we went from 646,200 in January to 646,940 in February, that force is still smaller than it has been through much of the recovery.

February’s labor force of 646,940 is smaller than every other month going back to February 2012—with one exception: February 2013, which was 646,725.

One highlight that’s pretty weird is how the city is excited about the number of employed Philadelphians is at its highest point “for a February” since 2009.

For a February we’re doing well, but there were more Philadelphians employed in, say, June and July 2013 than there are today. The labor force was also a lot bigger.

While the number of Philadelphians living in the city has steadily increased over the last ten years (we’ve gained 63,718 people since 2004), the labor force has only grown by about half that—33,613 people.

And while Philly’s rate of 8.3 percent is low-ish, that rate is still lagging behind three of the four other largest cities in the U.S.

Source: http://blogs.philadelphiaweekly.com/phillynow/2014/04/10/philly-recession-is-complicated/